This Saturday’s Coral Scottish Grand National at Ayr might not have the prestige, prize money or quite the class of Aintree’s John Smith’s Grand National, but it nevertheless looks a fascinating contest, and one in which Sue Smith’s Himalayan Trail could go well at a decent price, writes Elliot Slater.

Now that connections of the mighty Denman have resisted the temptation to run, nearly all the other runners in the race would have been some way out of the handicap had he taken his chance, Himalayan Trail gets to run off an attractive weight of just 10st 5lbs and looks primed to give a good account of himself.

The winner of the 2008 Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter subsequently endured a pretty lean time of things and rather lost his form until bouncing back off a reduced handicap mark to win well at Haydock in February. A subsequent 12lb rise in the weights after that victory proved no barrier to success as the 11-year-old stayed on bravely to win a good prize at Carlisle last time out. Now back to something close to his best form, Himalayan Trail could yet defy a further hike up the weights and with no doubts about stamina and his will to win clearly intact, he could represent excellent horse racing bet at 33/1.

Jimmy Moffatt’s Chief Dan George, who was balloted out of the big race at Aintree last week, is also set to miss the Ayr event, while last year’s runner-up Gone To Lunch, trained in Ireland by Homer Scott, will surely be on the premises having been trained specifically for this race since his fine effort 12 months ago.

The long wait is nearly over and in two days the Grand National 2010 will begin and with all 40 horses standing their ground today we should be in for a terrific race, so much so that trying to determine the outcome if it is proving more and more difficult. In fact, the short list is growing steadily longer and all the trainers and jockeys seem to think that their horse has what it takes to be first past the winning post of the worlds most grueling steeple chase.

We’ve studied the form, the stats and the horses performances over the last year and with some degree of difficulty have finally reached a point where we think we have at a horse who can offer you the best return on your money this weekend:

Erics Charm ~ Our Top National Tip!

So far, this horse has remained under the radar of the pundits who seem to be far more focused on which horses will be ridden by Ruby Walsh and Tony McCoy but make no mistake, this French 12 year old has plenty of potential. First and foremost he is one of only eight horses in this race who have ever run over 3m5f and won. He has also been placed on all other occasions he ran at that distance and stamina like that cannot be under-estimated.

He has also only ever had one fall in his entire career and that was back in 2004 and he has never been pulled up or unseated his rider no matter how difficult the race. The handicapper has also advised that given the opportunity he would weight him higher and believes him to be a good 5lbs under where he should be which will give him a significant advantage.

Odds on him are still long so get in there with an each-way bet with Paddy Power Bookmakers before they shorten!

Pundits Tips

Mike Cattermole – Raceform
* MON MOME
* Vic Venturi
* Big Fella Thanks
* The Package

Tony Stafford – Raceform
* BLACK APALACHI
* Whinestone Boy
* The Package
* Arbor Supreme

You can check out the odds on all the 2010 Grand National runners below.

As a jockey, Irishman Dessie Hughes scaled the heights, winning the 1977 Cheltenham Gold Cup on Davy Lad and the Champion Hurdle two years later when partnering Monksfield to a famous success over Sea Pigeon. Now, more than 30 years on, Hughes has his best chance of winning the John Smith’s Grand National as the trainer of both Vic Venturi and Black Apalachi, writes Elliot Slater.

Already seen as serious contenders for honours at Aintree this year, Hughes did nothing to lessen the excitement emanating from his yard when sending out Vic Venturi to win the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse last month, with Black Apalachi also running a cracker to come second.

Vic Venturi, a best priced 20/1, has already proven his ability to handle the daunting Aintree fences in winning the Becher Chase over one circuit of the National course back in November. He stays well and handles the soft ground that is now anticipated for the world’s greatest steeplechase, although the final going will depend on the Grand National weather.

For his part, Black Apalachi has also won the Becher Chase but is probably best known to the betting public for his heroics in last year’s Grand National where he put up a tremendous display of bold front-running and was still going strongly in the lead when blundering and unseating Denis O’Regan at Becher’s on the second circuit. It was still too early to be sure, but there is no doubt that Hughes’ charge was revelling in the experience and might well have finished in the first four had he put in a clean round.

Bookmakers are taking few chances this time around and Black Apalachi who is currently quoted at a best priced 14/1. It would be no surprise to see those odds shorten considerably in the 48 hours before the race as the betting public are shown video reminders of his big run 12 months ago. Those who want to place a Grand National bet on the 11-year-old might be best advised to take a price sooner rather than later.

Way back in 1982 Grittar became the first hunter chaser of the modern era to win the Grand National when partnered by 48-year-old amateur rider Dick Saunders to a famous Aintree success. This year Trust Fund, a very smart hunter chaser himself, may attempt to be the first this millennium to repeat the feat, writes Elliot Slater.

Many Grand National Betting punters fail to take seriously the prospects of a hunter chaser winning the world’s greatest steeplechase, but when you get a very high class hunter chaser, they can be well worth a place in the line-up. Richard Barber’s Trust Fund has little to prove having won the Fox Hunters’ Trophy at Aintree last year, jumping brilliantly before holding on gamely to outpoint course specialist Christie Beamish by four lengths, under Tom Greenall.

Trust Fund, a 12-year-old, has run well throughout his career over distances beyond four miles, jumps very soundly and prefers a decent surface; he would be an unlikely starter in the case of very soft ground. Having beaten 19 rivals at Chepstow prior to his Aintree victory where 29 others were left toiling in his wake, Trust Fund then went to Cheltenham where he justified odds-on with a never-say-die effort to win on the nod from former classy staying chaser Take The Stand.

Not seen out yet this term, Trust Fund is a horse who can run very well after an extended break and seems to get on particularly well with Tom Greenall, whose father Lord Daresbury owns the near veteran, who although knocking on a bit has actually only raced twenty times during his seven season career.

Available at a best priced 100/1 with Grand National Odds, Trust Fund might well give those interested in backing a long shot a seriously good run for their money and could go close to reviving memories of 1982 in attempting to put the hunter chase fraternity back in the Grand National spotlight.

Dessie Hughes is one of Ireland’s most established and skilled trainers, who has had consistent success with numerous horses over the years, most notably with Hardy Eustace. A successful jockey in his own right, he won the 1977 Cheltenham Gold Cup on Davy Lad and he also beat Sea Pigeon, riding Monksfield in his most famous victory in the Champion Hurdle.

In 1980 he took out his own training licence and had early success with Light The Wad who won the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown in 1982 and the 1981 and 1982 renewals of the Drogheda Chase at Punchestown. And in 1982 had a coveted Cheltenham victory with Miller Hill in the Supreme Novice Hurdle.

In 2001 Hughes bought Hardy Eustace for IR£21,000 and Central House for IR£28,000, who went on to win a total of twenty-five races between them, including nine Grade Ones. Hardy Eustace in particular proved to be a consistent hurdler who was particularly forthcoming at Cheltenham and has already earned over €1million in his career.

Hughes bought Schindlers Hunt at the same place as Hardly Eustace and Central House for €28,000, and he has already won the Grade One Durkan New Homes Novice Chase at Lepordstown and the Baileys Irish Arkle just one month later. He went on to win the 2008 renewal of the Dan Moore Handicap Chase and the the 2009 Leopardstown Handicap Chase before going on to be Grade One placed at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown.

Dessie Hughes also trains Black Apalachi who has recently stunned his trainer by becoming one of the Grand National favourites following a superb victory in the Becher Chase last November. Hughes was surprised as the horse had started off well in his career but had taken a bit of a downturn. He is now well back on track, so it may prove to be third time lucky for the gelding.

Hughes also has another Grand National 2010 hopeful in Vic Venturi who, after stealing the show at the Beechers Chase in November 2009, and at just nine years of age, is in his prime for this kind of race. Again, he was not on top form for the past couple of years but the latter half of 2009 has shown his true potential with two wins and a second from three starts.

Overall Hughes’ chances of success at two of the biggest meetings in the racing calender are looking promising! To have a bet on either of these horses winning the 2010 Grand National go to Paddy Power Bookmakers!

In 171 years of Grand National history only one horse has managed to win the toughest steeple chase three times ~ the legendary, famed and infamous Red Rum. This remarkable jumper became an instant celebrity in horse racing circles after winning the Grand National in 1973, 1974 and 1977. The 2010 Aintree Grand National might just lay the foundation for a second triple winner, considering that the field will include three previous Grand National champions.

Silver Birch (2007 winner), Comply Or Die (2008 winner) and Mon Mome (2009 winner) are all planning to return to the site of their former glory on April 19th in an attempt to claim the second victory that would set them on the path to share Red Rum’s thus untouched achievement.

As the Aintree Festival and with it the anticipated Grand National draws nearer, it may be a good idea to take a closer look at these three interesting contenders.

Silver Birch – Foaled April 6th 1997 Silver Birch is by far the oldest of the three contenders for the coveted dual win. However, age does not need to be a drawback; after all Peter Simple, the oldest horse to win the Grand National, was 15 years old when he was the first across the line. Out of his 28 career starts the gelding has won seven races, placed second five times and recorded two third places; leaving him at a 25% winning rate. However, since his win in the 2007 Grand National, Silver Birch has not recorded a win. Nonetheless, the Elliott trained contender placed an impressive second place in the Glenfarclas P.P. Hogan Memorial Cross Country Chase at Punchestown on January 31st this year. This hints that the thirteen-year-old is in better shape than he has been in years; which is necessary as Silver Birch is unlikely to have many more active seasons left to race. If Elliott couples his charge once more with regular jockey Robbie Power, who rode Silver Birch to his previous Grand National victory, the veteran will be an interesting candidate to watch over the next weeks.

Comply Or Die – Out of the three returning champions Comply Or Die is the one who has already narrowly scraped by a second win, leaving him with business to settle with rival Mon Mome. After winning the Grand National in 2008, the David Pipe-trained gelding was beaten by 100-1 outsider Mon Mome. Since this defeat the eleven-year-old has not recorded any outstanding successes. His most recent race, the William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival 2010, saw Comply Or Die starting out well but faltering to the point of reaching only a disappointing 13th place. However, it was the first race he had to face without regular jockey Tommy Murphy since December 2007. Although Comply Or Die seems to be in a slight funk, it is not out of the question that the experienced team of Pipe and Murphy will pull out enough stops to give their charge another shot at multiple Grand National Glory.

Mon Mome – When Mon Mome raced to victory in last year’s Grand National at Aintree, it was one of the rare triumphs of the underdog that make a race day truly memorable. Rated with 100-1 odds the French-trained gelding became the first French horse to win the Grand National in exactly one century; since the 1909 victory of Lutteur III. However, as it seems to be the curse of the recent Grand National champions since his success at Aintree Mom Mome has yet to record another win; although he has been racing consistently and never with truly shameful consequences. Out of his 38 career runs Mon Mome has won six races, and placed second and third eight and four times respectively; leaving him at a 15.7% winning rate. The ten-year-old is the youngest of the returning champions, which gives him the edge in this unusually tough and competitive race, although the experience of his rivals must not be underestimated.

The Aintree Grand National is always an occasion it is after all the craziest steeple chase staged all year whether or not it produces a double winner. Still, a double win would up the ante for the 2011 Grand National and the connections of the three candidates are working and planning around the clock in order to get their charges in the best possible shape for the looming event.

For more news about upcoming horse race meetings (including, obviously, the Grand National) check out Horse Racing UK for regular news, previews and reviews.

When multi-millionaire racehorse owner Graham Wylie paid 200,000 guineas for Abbeybraney at public auction in November 2008, he bought the horse specifically with the John Smith’s Grand National in mind, writes Elliot Slater.

A classy performer in his native Ireland, Abbeybraney had only narrowly failed to beat the smart Notre Pere in a Grade 1 event at Leopardstown and made a good start this side of the Irish Sea when chasing home Barbers Shop in a listed contest at Sandown.

Johnston’s gelding was then installed as one of the market leaders for the Welsh Grand National, but sadly the 10-year-old suffered a setback the week before the contest and was out of action for 11 months until returning to run a good third to the useful Weapons Amnesty at Newcastle in November. His subsequent success at Hexham at least showed that he remains sound and could be on the way back to recovering his best form.

Although capable of handling very soft ground, Abbeybraney is probably one of the better Grand National Horses on a decent surface and the prospect of a dry spell leading up to the Aintree meeting in April must enhance his chances of getting involved. A bigger challenge will be to first make the cut for the marathon spectacular as off an allocated weight of 10st 5lbs he appears to be in some danger of being left on the sidelines, needing at least 20 horses above him in the list to be withdrawn before the final declaration stage.

A thorough stayer, Abbeybraney is reportedly pleasing connections in his build up towards a tilt at the Aintree showpiece and could well warm up with a crack at the marathon National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. A good show at Prestbury Park could see his current Aintree Grand National Betting odds of 66/1 being slashed, but there will remain a doubt until only days before the event as to whether or not he will be granted a place in the Grand National starting line-up.

When the John Smith’s Grand National weights were made public in mid-February trainer Mouse Morris’s reaction was one of barely disguised disgust and he made it clear that the 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner was a very doubtful runner, writes Elliot Slater.

I’m sure we have all said things in the heat of the moment that we regret later, and it does appear that Morris is beginning to have second thoughts on the matter. The fact that the majority of firms have re-introduced the in-form veteran into their 2010 Grand National Prices lists at around 20/1, suggests that the vibes emanating from County Tipperary are growing more positive by the day.

It would be great for the Grand National itself if the former Gold Cup winner were to take his chance. Having been counted out as a light of former days, the 11-year-old has come back to form with a vengeance this term since being switched to hurdles, winning two Grade 2 events in recent starts and showing tremendous zest for a fight. A crack at the Ladbrokes World Hurdle could well be a warm-up for a tilt at the Aintree marathon, where even with 11st 1lbs, the gelding could be very competitive if he stays (despite his trainer’s protestations).

In 32 starts under rules War Of Attrition has never fallen, and as well as the Gold Cup, has won six other graded races, including the Grade 1 Swordlestown Novices Chase and the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup. His career prize money already exceeds a superb £700,000.

Having spent much of the season running over timber to rekindle his enthusiasm, the unique challenge of the Grand National weather fences could easily spark a similarly successful reaction from a horse who has proven time and again that he really is a star performer.

Despite the much voiced frustration of Mouse Morris when the weights for the 2010 Grand National were declared on Feb 16th, the prolific trainer has not yet removed his only entry, War of Attrition, from the big race.

The deadline for the first official scratchings for the race was on march 2nd and it transpired that War of Attrition was not withdrawn which came as a surprise to many including the bookmakers who had previously removed him from their ante-post odds offerings.

With War still in contention it left 98 still in the running as 13 were withdrawn including Irish Invader, Beroni, One Cool Cookie, Kilcrea Castle, Darkness, Siegemaster and Taranis, who was reported lame on Wednesday. There were no real shocks and very little has changed ante-post as all of the favourites are still on to run the race on Saturday April 10th.

The next date for scratchings is March 22nd at which time Morris will have had longer to consider what is best for War of Attrition and despite his allocated weight of 11-01 he may still be in with a very good chance on the day. Paddy Power currently have him at odds of 16/1 putting him as eighth favourite to win so maybe it’s worth the gamble to keep him in!

Big Fella Thanks was always an ante-post favourite with the bookies for the 2010 Grand National but after his winning performance today at Newbury, in the Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase, where he romped home, he has now trumped Tricky Trickster with Paddy Power to become the 8/1 horse to beat on April 10th.

Speculation has been rife as to whether or not Paul Nicholls can finally win a Grand National and his hopes seem to have originally been pinned on Tricky Trickster but this afternoon, stable mate Big Fella Thanks proved his weight in gold when he pipped another stable mate, Pasco with Ruby Walsh, to the winning post with Barry Geraghty on board.

Walsh had looked very comfortable and confident on Pasco but not as much as Geraghty on Big Fella Thanks, who started the race 8/1 odds, as he shot passed and took a narrow lead after Pasco pecked on landing after the third last.

This win was considered a warm-up for Big Fella Thanks and even Nicholls was surprised that he had won having admitted after the race that he had expected Pasco to bring home the win. He has since confirmed that both horses will be going to Aintree – BFT in the National and Pasco in the Topham.

With Nicholls now sitting on the first and second ante-post favourites for the Grand National it would appear that almost nothing can stop his current winning streak but the Grand National is a notoriously difficult race and anything can, and usually does, happen on the day!