When Hedgehunter won the 2005 Grand National he became the first winner since Corbiere (1983) to carry more that 11 stone. Watching the weights the horses carry in the National is key to picking a winner. Only top quality chasers can run four and a half miles carrying more than 11st, with Red Rum being the only winner to carry 11st 3lbs.
Look for horses that carry around the between 10 and 11 stone, last years winner Mon Mome carried 11st, in 2008 Comply Or Die carried 10-9 and in 2007 Silver Birch won with 10-6. Statistically a Grand National winner normally carries between 10-4 and 11st a few pounds here and there doesn’t make too much difference but don’t look to far beyond those weight ranges.
I’m really keen on Niche Market, nice young improving horse and we all know the record of Irish Grand National winners at Aintree.
I thought you might be interested in my evaluation of the 2010 Grand National entries now the weights are out. Apologies if your are not!
So, now the weights are out we are all at it; or at least most of us are at it!….avidly disecting the The Grand National form that is. Great excitement, long hours of sweat and toil…….and eventually the shortlist!
What should that list be based on? There is so much advice out there. Just where do we start and where do we end?
15 of the last 16 winners 9-y-o’d or older. All of the last ten winners previously ran in 10 chases or more. 8 of the last 10 had at least three years chasing experience. None of the last ten had ever fallen or unseated. 17 of the last 19 carried 10.12 or less. Each of the last 10 winners ran within 9 weeks of the race, mostly running fairly well. 6 of the last 9 winners had previously jumped the Aintree fences, with 5 doing well. Every winner since 2000 has won over 3m or further (preferably further). Form in any previous national be it Irish, Welsh, Scottish or the big one itself counts for a lot. Winning or placing in those races is a big plus. Handicap ratings between 135 and 157 are a key indicator (21 winners from 21 in this band). 9 and 10 year olds do best (10 of the last 13 were this age).Winning valuable races before the National bid is a big plus (£17,000 or higher value). 6 of the last 7 national winners had a run over hurdles in the season they won the race. Avoid horses prepared for Cheltenham and favour those kept for Aintree. One or two horses prepared for the Cheltenham Festival have gone on to win the National, but it is rare.
After doing the ratings based on the above I had a long lie down to recover before writing up this short list based on the current entry and weights (down to the 70th entry). You can take a risk and bet now or wait a few weeks looking for signs of form shown by horses who now have a guaranteed weight for the National (no added penalties from now to the day for improved performances) with no further need to hide any light under any bushel.
STATE OF PLAY. Meets all criteria except no recent run over hurdles. At best a top staying handicapper and one time Gold Cup fancy. 4th last year and down 5lds in the handicap. 25/1. Best fresh and kept all season just for this race. Everyone seems to have noticed!
DARKNESS. Meets all criteria except 11-Y-O and no run over hurdles. Faded into 13th last year in a race where the pace eased in the middle part of the race. Did this help him or catch him out as a bit one paced compared to some of the other finishers? A tempting 100/1. He has won at 3 miles but we are left to wonder if he does really stay this far?
CHARACTER BUILDING. Meets most criteria; but no experience of Aintree or nationals and probably aimed at Cheltenham (won there last year). Still rated a National horse by connections and only missed race at much shorter odds last year due to bruised foot. 33/1. Looks well in but expected improvement needed if he is to be thereabouts at these comparative weights.
MR POINTMENT. Meets all criteria except 11-Y-O now and no run over hurdles. Has previously won at Aintree and ran in and was pulled up in the 2008 National, going well to the 24th fence. Left Nicholls stable to Paul Murphy’s small outfit after injury problems. But Murphy did a good job last year with another Nicholls cast off in Cerium (despite being 500/1 a day or so before the race and kicked on the head and concussed last year in it when a running on 5th). Maybe Mr Pointment has lost his way, but 150/1 is a huge price on best form. Cerium (again entered this year and also fancied by his small stable if he can get a run in the final 40 off a lower weight being posted only 75th qualifier on the entry list at the weights). was not proven over the distance and was a huge price leading up to the 09 race. Cerium is set to run off the same OR this year as he did in 2009. Will lightening strike twice for Murphy with another Nicholls cast off? Both will have a warm up run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in preparation for Aintree and can be watched in that for signs of wellbeing.
CANE BRAKE. Just one fall is the single off putting stat, but excellent form at best and meets nearly all other criteria. 66/1. Could be the best ew value this year; although three pounds less would have been nice. My idea of a crafty sleeper cunningly laid out for the race, so his poor recent form is overlooked.
LOUPING D’AINAY. Again just one career fall, otherwise a French challenger of top quality with a great weight. Meets nearly all other criteria, but the trainer is doubtful he will run. 150/1. Are the fences OK for a horse that has never run in the UK?
SNOWY MORNING. Just one career jumping lapse the slight worry but he has got round in the National. Ran well last year and 3rd placed in 2008. Now at the right age to strike and laid out for race. Meets most other criteria. 33/1. Solid looking ew proposition.
STATE OF PLAY has to be the pick but CANE BRAKE looks good value each way. SNOWY MORNING is the saver. To be feared Character Building and possibly Darkness. Not to be ignored if getting to the race in good health Mr Pointment (and possibly Cerium – who came up best in last year when comparing his best ever winning form to his current official handicap rating on that day- albeit gained at a much shorter distance).
CURRENT RATING AGAINST BEST WINNING OR: DARKNESS (+8), STATE OF PLAY (+7), LOUPING D’AINAY (+7 *my collateral rating between French/GB form), MR POINTMENT (+5), SNOWY MORNING (+3), CANE BRAKE (=), CHARACTER BUILDING (-6).
And that folks is me lot!
Best wishes
SEABIRD
Thanks to Seabird for an excellent appraisal of the weights and runners, we welcome all comments so get adding yours now!
interesting reading….
Here are my ‘filters’
1. No French horses (last years was a fluke, not been a French winner for 101 years ignoring that one)
2. Must not be carrying more than 11 stones
3. Must have won a race of 3m 4f or more
4. Must have run in the last 40 days
5. Must be older than 8
6. Must be rated 136-148
No more than 11 stone leaves these:
6-51110 Ballyholland (IRE) 9 11-0 C A McBratney 145
P-1P1PP Beat The Boys (IRE) 9 11-0 N A Twiston-Davies 146
0-000F0 Preists Leap (IRE) 10 11-0 Thomas O’leary 148
103223 Snowy Morning (IRE) 10 10-13 W P Mullins 147
3301-00 Character Building (IRE) 10 10-11 J J Quinn 145
0-52600 Chelsea Harbour (IRE) 10 10-11 Thomas Mullins 148
U-301F2 Dooneys Gate (IRE) 9 10-11 W P Mullins 139
60/144-P State of Play 10 10-11 Evan Williams –
0-12100 Ellerslie George (IRE) 10 10-10 Nick Mitchell 144
4P1540 Ballyfitz 10 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies 139
43545U Conna Castle (IRE) 11 10-9 J J Mangan 143
23-15P6 Equus Maximus (IRE) 10 10-9 W P Mullins 143
2/0-0000 King Johns Castle (IRE) 11 10-9 A L T Moore 142
305460 Ollie Magern 12 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies 141
244/660 Lennon (IRE) 10 10-8 J Howard Johnson 142
02P-253 Maljimar (IRE) 10 10-8 Nick Williams –
U01-4U5 Irish Raptor (IRE) 11 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies –
P/6220-0 Mr Pointment (IRE) 11 10-7 Paul Murphy 141
035B00 Hello Bud (IRE) 12 10-6 N A Twiston-Davies 137
3/32-31P Abbeybraney (IRE) 9 10-5 J Howard Johnson 139
P63/52-P Flintoff (USA) 9 10-5 Miss V Williams –
PP462F Knowhere (IRE) 12 10-4 N A Twiston-Davies 140
4F1311 Whinstone Boy (IRE) 9 10-4 J J Mangan –
5-30011 Chief Dan George (IRE) 10 10-2 James Moffatt 142
‘Must have won a race of 3m 4f or more’ wipes almost all of them out
Chelsea Harbour
Hello Bud
These 3 should have been counted out but I will leave them in for now as they have shown ability but not won over 3m4f
Flintoff – hasn’t won a 3m4f race or further but was 2nd in the Midlands National last March over 4m1f
Chief Dan George – again hasn’t won a race over 3m1f but was 5th in the Scottish Nartional last April
State of Play – 4th last year carrying 11-2 – carries 10-11 this time round
‘Must have run in the last 40 days’ sees the selection process done and dusted – very quick this year, it normally takes a lot longer than that!
So, we are left with :
Chelsea Harbour (non-runner)
Hello Bud
Chief Dan George
There are doubts over whether Chief Dan George will get into the final 40, it hasn’t won over the required distance so in truth should be scratched out but it can last the pace and is 12lb well in but 10 stone 2 will not get into the final 40 in my opinion. Chelsea Harbour had an operation last year and in the 2 runs since then finished 12th and 12th so that doesn’t inspire confidence so my final 2 selections are :
Hello Bud
Chief Dan George (if, and a very slim chance, it runs)